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Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T19:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32612/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is an M5.0 flare peaking at 2024-08-07T18:54Z from AR 3777. The start of the CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-07T17:23Z to 23:09Z. Dimming, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption appears to be directed towards the southeast. A possible faint, separate halo component may also be seen in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: T2024-08-07 23:19
Radial velocity (km/s): 854
Longitude (deg): 15
Latitude (deg): -10
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: The CME associated with the M5 flare seemed perhaps more shockwave than ejected plasma and was faint. The induced geomagnetic activity may be brief.

Lead Time: 30.33 hour(s)
Difference: 9.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-08-09T05:35Z

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